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Usually, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year trophy follows a simple formula. It often serves as a type of apology. Sorry we underestimated your squad in our preseason predictions.

In theory, it's a clear-cut line: the skipper who engineered the biggest improvement is handed the prize. In practice, it fuels an annual debate about expectations and whether we're actually rewarding superior leadership or simply the biggest shock.

Yet this year's race is distinctly unique. The pool of candidates is remarkably deep. It has been the campaign of resurgences. The league has been chaotic, with reigning division champions declining and longtime also-rans improving together. In an normal season, Sean Payton guiding the his team to the summit of the conference would make him the stone-cold favorite. But in such a chaotic and fun season, he's competing with five other exceptional coaches.

Below is how the hypothetical ballot should look.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, Their Record

Coach of the Year selectors adore quarterbacks. This is a tradition. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. If you transform a quarterback, you're well on your way to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach didn't merely fixed Caleb Williams; he's unlocked him. Given a proper ecosystem, the QB has been afforded the opportunity to display his special talent. From Week 9, the Chicago offense rank number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a lucky run – it's consistent dominance. Under Johnson, Williams has become more decisive, far less reckless, and has eagerly surrendered to the system rather than improvising. It is an attack designed solely in the coach's image: a physical run game, a consistent helping of play-action and a imaginative aerial game that springs wide-open targets everywhere. The QB has taken advantage. And when clear throws weren't available, he's been able to spin big plays out of nothing.

Johnson came to the Bears with a specific offensive philosophy. Virtually each gamble – rebuilding the offensive line, utilizing the tight ends, turning the QB into a rhythm thrower – has paid off. This is rare for a first-year head coach. And it's even more uncommon yet for a coach who walked into the building with the immense expectations Johnson did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the top name on the head coaching carousel. However when it comes to hiring a leader, there are no guarantees. Remarkably, Johnson has lived up to the hype – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not just to be a offensive dork but the type of culture builder that can inject new life into an franchise.

In a normal season, Johnson would be the overwhelming favorite. But this is not a typical campaign!

Where Johnson's candidacy runs slightly unstuck is on defense. The Bears currently sit 25th in defensive efficiency. They are relying on turnovers, and takeaways are famously fickle. Coaches can stress ball disruption, but nobody can guarantee it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offensive production is real. He's not higher because luck is doing too much of the defensive work. If not for a couple bounces of the ball, the Bears would be two wins behind. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the foundation is in place for sustained winning. However he falls just short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar position to his counterpart. He's another first-time leader who has orchestrated a dramatic resurgence. During the stretch run of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete overall ball of his professional life. And he's also overseen the remaking of a defense that now sits at number five in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more notably, he has excelled at the leadership stuff, which wasn't a guarantee after his initial public introduction and some of his preseason decisions.

The coach walked into Jacksonville with an uncommonly inexperienced coaching staff. Unlike Johnson, who surrounded their staff with the perfect coaching blend of new ideas and experience, he bet on first-timers. Starting with the leader himself to assistants to position coaches, the Jags are filled with first-timers. That kind of approach is intriguing on paper, but often fails in practice – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everybody is figuring out a their job on the fly. Yet he has managed to bring the entire group and all elements together.

After an initial strong beginning, there was a chance that the season would go off the rails. A mid-year setback had the Jags wobbling again. That's typically when coaches overcorrect. Coen did not. Rather, he simplified things. Jacksonville stopped chasing explosive plays and started seeking consistent ones. Coen recentered the offense around key players and the running game, and encouraged his QB to use his mobility more.

The outcomes are evident. The Jaguars have won seven games in a row and will be the AFC's No 3 playoff seed. Coen receives the tiniest knock in the standings because he took over a talented roster, but he has proven he can get the most out of that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, 13-3

Every Coach of the Year narrative has a hinge moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB choice.

Parting ways from a incumbent, signing a new quarterback and partnering him with an innovative offensive coordinator might have ended the campaign in October. Rather, it made it. By the middle point of the season, the new QB was an MVP candidate. He has cooled off after that time, slipping to 23rd in EPA per pass attempt over the second half of the schedule, putting him only one place ahead of peers.

Still