Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the tension sparked by the presentation of a new 28-article proposal for resolving the conflict appeared – momentarily – to have been contained. A American diplomat spoke of "notable headway" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its countermove: a renewed assault of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Diplomacy and Destruction
The chain of opposing developments captured the harsh reality of the current period. By day, diplomatic battles are waged: hopeful statements are delivered from different nations. Significant resources is allocated on restraining specific proposals. By night, the Kremlin forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, war remains the key method for achieving "peace".
Nocturnal Warfare
As the offensive developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's defenselessness was laid bare. Ukraine is able to track rocket firings from enemy soil, a ability provided through timely intelligence. From witness perspectives, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been scrambled to counter approaching cruise missiles streaked across the sky – advanced fighter aircraft supplied to Ukraine by European allies.
Shortly after, Kyiv's missile defense activated: several firings deployed against a incoming threat. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, presumably supplied through allied countries. Every launch shakes the surroundings, rattling buildings. The brief panic quickly becomes grim resignation: possibly the incoming missile won't hit its mark this time, preventing destruction from catastrophe and another blackout.
Persistent Threats
Soon after, a heavy machine gun engaged a aerial vehicle in the vicinity, part of a rapid response unit – probably Western-made equipment. Regrettably, the projectiles didn't strike the opposing UAV – it maintained course toward its destination.
Intermittently, this continued until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the daybreak reports: multiple fatalities, destruction and utility failures in multiple buildings as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As customarily, everyone still maintained normal activities – experiencing conflict. But those 24 hours demonstrated Ukraine's essential dependence on international aid – a dependence that regional partners are clearly incapable to replace in the immediate future.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The 28-point plan from American leadership provoked deep reactions, debate and serious worry – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after previous diplomatic encounters and multilateral gatherings.
Every new initiative from American administration unfolds according to the consistent cycle: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, effectively counters. They manage the tension but never actually secure success. This trend will, undoubtedly, endure.
Tactical Assessments
It is tempting to accuse certain parties of repeatedly advocating Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the whole story. Washington operates on a assumption well known to international relations experts: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have been unable to protect through force. The US administration believes that it is impossible to force Russia to abandon the land that it presently holds in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The issue is that while recognising this factual reality, Washington does nothing to prevent Kremlin actions, through words or deeds, from assuming that the situation will not evolve additionally in its favour in the months ahead.
Divergent Views
Therefore, the Kremlin is certain that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its partners are approaching exhaustion. Their reason to accept conditions that does not give them the maximum possible gain is close to zero. There may be multiple initiatives to end hostilities, but they will continue as long as Russia's leadership remains highly assured in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still persist, slowly losing civilians and areas but avoiding a entire defensive failure until conditions improve in its benefit.
Current Realities
Factually, there are no genuine requirements for a armistice. Now, subjective factors are becoming relevant: leadership ambitions to mediate resolution and achieve global acclaim, and Ukrainian leadership's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the flag against any proposal Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their priority does not shift toward internal issues. And although their objective will now be significantly challenging after recent developments, it remains very improbable that this will change their overall approach.
These two forces are driving the talks.
Assessment and Future
It took a mere seven days to kill the suggested clauses of the most recent proposal. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by US administration, pushback by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with pacifying measures of diplomats, and finally, current information leaks, all achieved their purpose.
While new plans based on previous concepts are approaching, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter diplomatic offensives from Washington that are based on Russian demands and demonstrate certain reluctance to alter the situation, if they maintain solidarity and enhance their military capacity at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the predictable period, mainly require ongoing international assistance.
