A decade after the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that split the country and triggered disorder, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and electorate drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have studied the political, financial and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say that moment is looming, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unification has masked the absence of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or campaigners are willing to participate even with the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, none of the commentators advocates unity or the existing arrangement. Each composes two articles that seek objectivity in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the argument against, assembling financial and societal data, historical precedents and structural examples.
Arguments range over flags and symbols, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and encourage conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the notion that there may exist valid points on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters report they prefer unity but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his generation is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified points, he commented. "Somebody will win on this issue and the other side will ultimately be defeated but all factions has possesses valuable insights to learn from the opposing positions."
Appeal for Broader Discussion
Westminster should join the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish question."
